Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
